iframe None selected  [Skip to content](https://mail.google.com/mail/u/1/) [Using Gmail with screen readers](https://mail.google.com/mail/u/1/) # | | | - | | | | - | 16 of many ## **OIL AND GAS INDUSTRY, ECONOMICS AND POLITICS IN NIGERIA** **Inbox** [image](https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/default-user=s80-p) | | | :- | | | | - | ### Eghosa Osagie from Eghosa Osagie \  Unsubscribe ### | Fri, Apr 3, 1:27 PM | | | | ------------------: | -: | -: | | | | | | to me | [image](https://mail.google.com/mail/u/1/images/cleardot.gif) | | ----- | ------------------------------------------------------------- | [image](https://ci3.googleusercontent.com/meips/ADKq_NZhfjlj-p7AmBDW3WHZe0_KUPYC-Suc6SSA7NyBrFxrR-1cW_X36LYlGq1q2O3QFC5bsReHA1skQZH22GLdphE_7UpG31yrRKZ8p2ypZc2YyhybJirZoO0aISNAO7N7c26brS_Ie1bp0RdgqkEO7I3x1UZdc_e2986VLzWyqb0uT6zT1JE9wO1SEobWxYnbR5GMBFGlyK9vKn9rYyBrVYYCIjjEU78jJFzwMXipjTK6rdsUl8-JThzVs-uqc4szUcYLOmFU_-5o08qJEUwCV63Jmrr5i2H8ewcYml94mj3EDBf1Ej_7uDubRMdUnNJKbt5EzLiYfTtGyt8ThTQ7xAMdygxrO0a7XCFdnrZb8KfnP7iD8LjX8tOrSkmTTfgroPa5UMt0ergZXCeUq2vv_80Eoc9bUdb-NkpwdWCdG46GmqgPEvQUNDXUQi_6cWE1dUxwIlxwn2WLQaheHsnjyVnEg5zdTN8Vx7MyAud5HOMnZ-BPS0qXZLG6la-HFSb_vCMgAhCuKB8pBri0W8_8qsTISES_xolwYF3-b0sqc7eAdMcu8I6Xz3iHN-I_GFi8QvhUDbtDYRMtrUX9F5VrBy3WnYly2ag1rDxWJxN8lwyS2NuQk_uQtFb1Gdi-vClC28ZPRhzB2ZZuvpIniTykur2C90bj=s0-d-e1-ft#https://eotrx.substackcdn.com/o/4569ff53dacc3953/p.gif?token=eyJtIjoiPDIwMjYwNDAzMTYyNjU0LjMuOWI2MWZhN2U0NmFhNTkwNEBtZzIuc3Vic3RhY2suY29tPiIsInUiOjE5NDkxMzY1NiwiciI6InJlZGVpc3BsYWNlQGdtYWlsLmNvbSIsImQiOiJtZzIuc3Vic3RhY2suY29tIiwicCI6MTkzMDg3ODQ2LCJ0IjoibmV3c2xldHRlciIsImEiOiJldmVyeW9uZSIsInMiOjgyNTcyNTUsImMiOiJwb3N0IiwiZiI6dHJ1ZSwicG9zaXRpb24iOiJ0b3AiLCJpYXQiOjE3NzUyMzM2MjgsImV4cCI6MTc3NzgyNTYyOCwiaXNzIjoicHViLTAiLCJzdWIiOiJlbyJ9.O3G2dCVeGJ1TC0Mio_poDYrEE4mKlNrLB2zutspzEFI) | | | | | - 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| | | | - | | [**Eghosa Osagie**](https://substack.com/@eghosaosagie) | | ------------------------------------------------------- | | | | - | | **Apr 3** | | --------- | | | | - | | [image](https://substack.com/@eghosaosagie) ([image](https://ci3.googleusercontent.com/meips/ADKq_NYkr_pSHv4YnhBBusv2yuzW15kWn5P6E2GNFzPPcgCc7kzs57A9jyJUlA7NlbR9sfQD-bN35r6IBENasS-rDyNt99VlHjxYV1M5NjQevWZbUmhOa2BHtaL93Wjw_0vz4cEqV0Z1F7h0okUqlswdXljZw6mQQVhia3qlxFll8GP9Y-70ADCyvcZD5cwQr-1DXA9zUTg-iSOqtRIrdConST56QlPtuh5Q4gasJJCOdG6qSTlB1k0OGRXr4NfZERucMCySRdEWf_fraYuoKCuFSnksSDTSx-YgbtCmVoHdeEvbNV2Nfg=s0-d-e1-ft#https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!qMFF!,f_auto,q_auto\:good,fl_progressive\:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4a532f8b-4bda-4a0d-8030-d575f984e950_600x600.png)) | | ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | |   | | - 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| **SPEECH DELIVERED AT THE 2018 OIL AND GAS PUBLIC LECTURE SERIES, ORGANIZED BY THE INSTITUTE OF OIL AND GAS RESEARCH AND HYDROCARBON STUDIES AT NICON LUXURY, ABUJA ON FRIDAY,** **MAY 25, 2018.** **Oil and Gas Industry, Economics and Politics in Nigeria** Nigeria is abundantly endowed with oil and gas resources which give the country the potential of becoming a major economic power in the world. It opens up opportunities for diversification into several petrochemicals where outputs reduce the country’s dependence on a vast array of imported industrial inputs and raw materials. This would, if this strategy is embraced, increase employment opportunities for citizens, stimulate economic growth, and improve the balance-of-payments position of the country. However, this strategy of diversification was not seriously pursued as lip service was paid to it. The choice of exporting crude oil as a ready source of foreign exchange earnings and revenue shared among the three tiers of government has created economic and political problems frustrating national development. This paper reviews experiences of other countries that in the past enjoyed windfalls in nature’s endowment of petroleum resources, analyses the strategy and policy framework employed to transform underdeveloped economies into modern economic systems in the United Arab Emirate, Iran, and Bostwana, which though not an oil-producing country, embraces a strategy ensuring that the vast majority of citizens benefit from the windfall arising from the production and export of diamonds. In addition, the paper discusses economic orientation of government and policies which over the years have blocked diversification away from exportation of crude petroleum. Finally, the paper analyses the political attitudes that frustrate diversification and the opportunities opened up by passage of the Petroleum Industry Governance Bill (PIGB) in 2018. **Examples from other Countries** A country that unexpectedly encounters a major windfall arising from exploitation and export of minerals faces two opposing choices. It either plans to ensure that accruing benefits are enjoyed by the majority of citizens or identifies favoured elite stakeholders. Such elites usually include international oil corporations, politically connected interests or host communities. The choice of mass enjoyment of unexpected wealth raises the quality of life of all citizens and minimizes the likelihood of militant agitation for a fair share of benefits derived from production and export. Conversely, the alternative selective approach to sharing of windfall gains alienates the vast majority. Indeed, the situation is aggravated when host communities are generally perceived as marginalized in provision of social infrastructure and employment opportunities. We consider the experience of Iran, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Venezuela before its recent political crisis with regard to policies and strategies adopted for their oil and gas industries. After the overthrow of the Shah of Iran and take-over of political power by Shi’ites clerics, the major international oil companies withdrew from the country. The new revolutionary regime organized the take-over of the petroleum sector by the national oil company. It chose the path of commercialization as opposed to privatization and undertook a massive manpower development to ensure uninterrupted production. Commercialization ensures that operations were not distorted by government interference while government continued to receive dividends and taxes from the sector. These revenue sources enhanced government investments in agriculture, industry, infrastructure, and social services (education and health). Venezuela before recent upheavals also adopted policies similar to the Iranian. It commercialized the oil sector, in the process blocking government interference in management and was satisfied with dividend and tax receipts for the development of other sectors. A remarkable aspect of Venezuelan Petroleum policies was the establishment of refineries in the West Indies and the United States in addition to local refining capacity. This policy not only guaranteed self-sufficiency in refined petroleum products but also exports to other markets in the Americas. These policies enabled the populist economic policies of the Chavez regime that placed premium on satisfying the basic needs of the poor. The UAE (as represented by Dubai) experience regarding the Petroleum sector is iconic and spectacular. Before the discovery of petroleum, these Emirates were predominantly desert, creeks and swamps. The Emirs had to make a definite decision on the utilization of unexpected wealth derived from the earning of unprecedented petro-dollars. The choice was again between keeping the wealth in the royal families or employing it to engineer a massive transformation of their economies. They chose the latter option. Economists and other experts were invited to develop blueprints that were to transform Dubai into one of the most modern and fast-growing economies in the world. Plans were made for tourism, state-of-the-art educational and health institutions, world-standard sports facilities, hospitality industry (mainly hotels), most modern airport and some of the largest shopping complexes in the world that attract shoppers from all over the world. In all these investment projects which make Dubai highly diversified, the government collects taxes from visitors. It can therefore be said that if petroleum were to loose its economic relevance today, Dubai would continue to experience appreciable development. The case of Botswana, though not an oil-exporting country, is instructive. The discovery of diamonds provided an opportunity for the political leadership to demonstrate selflessness. Sir Seretse Khama, the first post-colonial Prime Minister and his government decided that the precious mineral belonged not exclusively to the host community of which he was prince, but to the country to be used for its development. It was in this way that diamonds, cattle ranching and wild-life based tourism became the driving force that made Botswana one of the countries with highest per capita income in Africa. We may wish to contrast this success story with the civil wars and social unrest bedeviling such countries as Democratic Republic of the Congo and Liberia which preferred the restricted approach to the development of windfall gains from export of minerals. **Economics of Petroleum in Nigeria** The discovery and commercial exploitation of petroleum in Nigeria in 1956 opened a new vista of opportunity for rapid economic transformation. In the late colonial period and up to the early 1970s, the country depended on exports of such commodities as rubber, cocoa, groundnut, palm produce and tin to promote economic growth, provide revenue for government and ensure a healthy balance-of-payments position. The country depended on her economists to provide technical inputs into investment of marketing board surpluses in social services, infrastructure, and in the generation of national and regional development plans that were moving Nigeria in the direction of middle-income-country status. Among the leading lights of economists in this period were Dr. Pius Okigbo, Prof. H.M.A. Onitiri, Prof. Oje Aboyade, Prof. S. A. Aluko, Dr. Clement Isong, Mr. Ekukinam and Mr. Halim. These experts carried out the background research and analyses providing support for formal policy statements and development programmes of governments at federal and regional levels. In the federal civil services, Oxford-trained economists like Allison Ayida and Mr. Phillip Asiodu provided the vital link between academic economists and policy-making organs of government. Under this arrangement, Nigeria was generally assumed to be heading in the direction of an economic power house not only in Africa, but also in the global county of nations. This well-ordered system of a mixed economy providing opportunities for the public and private sectors to contribute their quota to rapid economic development was rudely disrupted by a series of military coups, particularly those occurring in 1975 and beyond. These abrupt seizures of power brought into the corridors of power rulers who, assuming that they knew it all, retired prematurely some of the brightest stars in the civil service and universities. To the new military rulers, some of whom are still in politics almost half a century after they came into the limelight, political power was assumed to confer on them economic expertise. There was, therefore, no need to appoint economists to sensitive economic ministries as there was the assumption that so-called “commonsense economic policies” were preferable to well-thought-out policies based on rational economic principles. This mind set had, and continues to have adverse consequences on the Nigerian economy in general and the oil and gas industry in particular. We shall be specific. a. Ownership and Control Final details of ownership and control are still being determined in the long-delayed Petroleum Industry Bill (PIB) which is being processed in bits and pieces. As in other petroleum-producing countries considered earlier, the choice is between commercialization and privatization, and the major stake holders are governments, international oil companies, the domestic political class, host communities and militant youth groups formed to challenge the marginalization of host communities in the provision of infrastructure, job opportunities and contract awards. From evidence available, Nigeria appears to favour the selective approach to distribution of benefits of oil windfalls. The favoured groups are political elites (granted oil blocks) from non-oil producing regions, the federal government, and the international oil companies. The neglect of host communities particularly in infrastructure and employment opportunities is the major driving force behind Niger Delta militancy. Even the Amnesty Programme introduced by the Yar’Adua Administration and embraced by succeeding regimes is selective in the sense that it favours one particular ethnic group out of several ethnic nationalities whose ancestral land bear petroleum. This approach to amnesty encourages the favoured group, to lay claim to oil-producing land of neighbouring ethnic nationalities. This is a time bomb with potential to disrupt crude output in the future. Control of the petroleum sector by the Presidency is common to all regime since 1999. For example, two former military Heads of State who again surfaced as “civilian” Presidents in the Nigerian Fourth Republic appointed themselves as Minister of Petroleum Resources. This facilitates distribution of petroleum related patronage to favoured political elites and control of the NNPC bureaucracy. To check this sort of political interference, the NNPC should be completely commercialized while the Federal Government remains content with profits and dividends. This shift in ownership and control would no doubt check financial scandals occurring in the sector. Although, the final content of the PIB is yet unknown, patriotic stakeholders should agitate for commercialization of the sector. b. Failure to Diversify into Petrochemicals and other sectors In the 1970s, plans were made to diversify the economy by using foreign exchange resources earned in the petroleum sector to improve infrastructure, developing the industrial base, investing heavily in petrochemicals producing thousands of industrial inputs for other industries, and agriculture. Although commitment to diversification was made at every opportunity provided by annual budget presentation, not much was achieved in this area as successive governments were satisfied with earning petrodollars spent largely on recurrent expenditure and some looted as competing “treasury looters” lists published by the two leading political parties indicate. The revolutionary economic transformation that occurred in Dubai and Botswana was sadly missed in Nigeria. c. Failed Turn-Around-Rehabilitation of Petroleum Products Refineries and Failure to Construct New Ones Failure to expand petroleum product refining capacity to keep pace with domestic demand has had far-reaching implications on the Nigerian economy in spite of periodic fiscal allocations for rehabilitation of refineries. This has subjected the country to annual shortfalls which disrupt economic activities and produce significant price increases. This constrains economic growth. More importantly, these shortages have forced Nigeria to become an importer of refined petroleum products. As a result, Nigeria spends scarce foreign exchange to import these products in spite of the fact that she is a leading OPEC member. The combination of regular depreciation of the naira and importation of refined petroleum products leaves the country in a dilemma: specifically subjecting the citizens to high petroleum products prices which frustrated economic recovery and further impoverishes the people or subsidizing imports of refined petroleum products which diverts significant budget allocations from economic and social sectors to subsidy payments. The rational solution to this problem is the establishment of new refineries by private sector investors some of whom may have relatively short gestation periods to establish medium to small-scale refineries in the oil fields. Success in this regard not only frees the country from importing petroleum products but also enable her to export these products. d. Sharing Orientation as Opposed to Production Sudden and unexpected revenue from the petroleum sector produced a negative sharing orientation among governments and the political class. This was bound to happen in an extreme free-market economic system discouraging national economic planning since 1975. Federal, State and Local Governments depended heavily on monthly fiscal allocations from the Federation Account heavily funded by revenue derived from the petroleum sector. There was and still is, no incentive for governments to identify and exploit new economic activities that augment Internally Generated Revenue (IGR) and open up new employment and incomes for citizens. This is, presumably, the most important factor militating against diversification of the Nigerian economy similar to what happened in Dubai and other UAE countries. Specifically, diversification of the Nigerian economy would depend on a return to formal national economic planning system, vastly improved governance standards in the petroleum sector in particular and the emergence of Servant-Leader policy makers. **Politics of the Oil and Gas Sector** Although this is not the place to present a detailed analysis of the struggle to return to the principles and practice of fiscal federalism as enshrined in the 1963 constitution, the following section may not be fully understood in the absence of the controversy. That constitution entrenched the principle of derivation as an important aspect of revenue allocation between the Federal and Regional Governments. The military coup of January 15th, 1966 and succeeding military governments significantly reduced the weight attached to the principle of derivation, a development which reduced derivation payments to oil - producing Regions/States. Agitations for a return to the practice of Federalism instead of the current de facto unitary system of government have been vigorously resisted by the dominant political class and politically oriented retired army generals who seem to have retained control of the polity since the formal end of military rule in 1999. The operation of the Presidential system with its requirements of huge financial expenditure during electoral campaigns, exercise of impunity and enjoyment of immunity by key selected officials while in office, and the extensive opportunities under the opaque government practices in the oil and gas industry provided ample opportunities for financial mismanagement and corruption. In these circumstances, we can confidently conclude that without large amounts of petrodollars revenue from the oil and gas sector, the significant looting engaged in by politicians and political parties would have been impossible. The peculiar situation in Nigeria where host communities of the oil fields are located in politically disadvantaged States in the South-South geopolitical zone gives rise to youth militancy. These youths, and indeed other citizens observe with dissatisfaction the degradation of their environment without any significant efforts by governments and the international oil companies to improve local infrastructure, provide contract and employment opportunities for them. To make matters worse, they see revenue derived from their communities used to develop other Regions, while such palliative efforts to mitigate the adverse effects of petroleum production such as the NDDC and the Bureaucratic Ministry of Niger Delta are considered ineffective and diversionary. Hence the unfortunate resort to destruction of pipelines and other facilities. The Federal Government response was the Amnesty Programme benefiting former militants to the exclusion of groups that remained law-abiding. In addition, the Amnesty programme is divisive in the sense that its beneficiaries are predominantly of one ethnic nationality while the majority of ethnic groups are ignored simply because they have not taken up arms against the country. We may be curious as to how non-oil-producing Regions were allowed to take complete control of an industry in another geopolitical zone. The answer is to be found in the subservience of South-South political leaders to political god-fathers from other geopolitical zones. They prefer to act as agents of national political parties in their states, using significant percentages of their fiscal allocations to finance electioneering campaigns of national political parties. This situation is further worsened by the inexplicable disconnect between South-South political leaders and their economists. While other Regions regularly depend on their economists to prepare documents and provide advice on critical issues, South-South political leaders would rather prefer to employ the services of foreigners, Nigerians from other Regions, or members of their political parties who have no clue about matters at stake. **Petroleum Industry Bill to the Rescue** Earlier in this paper, we pointed out how much mineral- producing countries like Dubai and Botswana succeeded in the diversification of their economies through selfless and transparently honest leadership. Good governance is therefore a pre-requisite for success in this regard. Nigeria has been saddled with the bureaucratic orientation of the Federal Ministry of Petroleum Resources and the politicization of the NNPC. As a result, efficiency profit-orientation and aggressive competitiveness in international markets were compromised. It was in reaction to these shortcomings that the petroleum Industry Bill was initially introduced about 18 years ago. The Senate and the House of Representatives passed this landmark legislation but for reasons yet unknown, President Olusegun Obasanjo refused to sign it into law. It took another 15 years of legislative effort for the Senate to pass the governance segment of the Bill now known as the Petroleum Industry Governance Bill (PIGB) in 2017 and the House of Representatives in 2018. The PIGB now awaits Presidential signature. Three additional Bills, namely the Fiscal Regime Bill, Upstream and Midstream Administration Bill and the Petroleum Revenue Bill are expected to be passed before the end of 2018 by the National Assembly. The objectives of the PIGB are in line with the goal of internationally competitive industry significantly purged of corruption. Specifically, the objectives are:- a. creation of efficient and effective governance initiatives with clear and separate roles; b. providing frame work for the creation of commercially oriented and profit-driven entities to ensure value - addition and internationalization of the industry; c. promoting accountability and transparency, and creation of conducive business environment for operators. In addition, the Bill provides for the creation of a Ministry of Petroleum Incorporated, Regulatory Commission, National Petroleum Assets Management Company, Nigerian Petroleum Company to operate as a fully commercialized integrated oil and gas company. It would participate in joint-venture investments, organize production under the NPDC, engage in frontier operations and other upstream services, downstream activities, including sale of crude and other products. It is important to note that although the demands of the host communities have not been directly addressed (it is expected that these will be addressed in the other Bills to be considered by the National Assembly), we consider the PIGB as an important step in minimization of corruption and waste in the oil and gas industry. It would help check interference by politicians in operations in the sector, check treasury looting, and increase financial resources available to finance diversification of the economy. If the PIGB and the other associated legislations are successfully implemented, the fortunes of the Nigerian economy would be significantly improved. In addition to good governance, manpower capacity development, and technology-driven production, revenue and production in the oil and gas industry would become the main drivers of the Nigerian economy. Indeed, revenue from the petroleum industry can be used to further the development of the other drivers. Another area that may be explored is the development of innovative business networks between the proposed Nigerian Petroleum Company and several Nigerian medium and small-scale companies. Such companies operating in refining and petrochemical subsectors would receive crude from the NPC which in return would stand ready to purchase services and other inputs from them. It is through such input- output relationships that millions of jobs can be created for Nigerians. In the specific case of host communities, in addition to benefits accruing from corporate undertakings of social responsibility, provision should be made in legislation for local shareholding in oil and gas companies, and for communities with technical capability to establish and operate small-scale modular refineries without being harassed by Nigerian security agencies who are expected to protect Nigerian lives and property. **Conclusion** Distinguished ladies and gentlemen, I wish to thank you for providing me the opportunity of presenting an economists perspective of the performance and prospects of the petroleum industry in Nigeria. We have been able to identify the sources of success of such mineral-rich countries as the UAE and Botswana, the factors militating against economic development of Nigeria and the bright prospects opened up by the passage of the Petroleum Industry Governance Bill by the National Assembly. 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